The Truth About the Falling Dollar - How You Can Still Make Money
By: Bob Perry
Please - whatever you do - don't let the depressing facts about the dollar keep you from making money in 2008. What the pessimistic press isn't telling you is how you can profit from the lowest dollar in 15 years. There is a extraordinary opportunity heading your way if you know how to seize it.
But first let me explain how the falling dollar really works. Then you'll see with your own eyes how you can profit. A falling dollar does two things:
* Makes foreign imports more expensive
* Makes US exports cheaper on the world market
The chain reaction not only increases sales of U.S. goods around the world but also creates more jobs for Americans. The end result increases the profits of U.S. multinationals.
And that's just the half of it.
Because a cheaper dollar makes foreign products more expensive, Americans buy more American goods as well-creating even more U.S. jobs. On a purely psychological level, it does even more than that: It creates greater investor and consumer confidence, as more Americans are working, more consumers are spending, and more American companies are profiting. On top of that, a falling dollar has one potentially bigger benefit. It reduces the trade deficit, further strengthening the economy.
And while there are others who might take exception to my simple explanation, they'll certainly agree on this: American exporters will make out like bandits. And it's all because American goods become much cheaper and the world buys more of them. The only unfortunate thing being that Oil is at an all time high also and has depressed some sectors of our economy. Consumer Confidence being one of them, but overall the low dollar has helped our economy.
Have you noticed that whenever the dollar hits a new low, the price of oil reaches a new high? It's no coincidence. As the U.S. economy slows, the Fed is cutting interest rates to shore up the housing market and stave off the credit mess. But in so doing, the Fed further weakens the U.S. dollar's value.
This is something the Fed needs to be careful about. The faster they cut interest rates, the weaker the dollar gets, which fuels oil's rocket-ride skyward. That's because crude oil is traded in U.S. dollars. When the dollar is low, other currencies are stronger, which basically means that people in other countries can buy more oil for less money. And that's what's happened.
Although the weak U.S. dollar/rising crude oil correlation has been with us since late 2002, it really became noticeable in 2007. This correlation has been utterly amazing to the point that if the U.S. dollar slips during the day, you can expect crude oil prices will correspondingly rise. Yikes! Clearly, the OPEC folks do not care if the dollar weakens, since the more the dollar falters, the more profits they see.
So what the Fed needs to watch out for is cutting interest rates too much, because the dollar will likely weaken further, and then oil could soar past $150 per barrel. $5 per gallon gasoline seems very likely this summer-certainly, no one wants that!
In a similar way, almost all commodities are traded in U.S. dollars, so as the U.S. dollar weakens, commodity prices have soared. According to the Bank for International Settlements, the dollar is involved in 86% of the $3.2 trillion in daily currency transactions around the world, often as a middle step in exchanges between two other currencies. While this is down from 90% in 2001, no other currency comes close to impacting currency and commodity transactions.
Clearly, thanks to the fact that the U.S. dominates commodity trading, there is really no other global currency with enough excess reserves to supplant the U.S. dollar as the world's largest reserve currency. As a result, as the dollar softens, commodity and oil prices rise correspondingly.
As the falling dollar makes American goods cheaper all over the world, the U.S. agricultural sector will take off. How can this be? Because the American agricultural industry lies at the crossroads of three global trends:
1. the falling dollar 2. rising food costs 3. rising oil prices.
As a result, the manufacturers of farm equipment as well as the producers of fertilizer and genetically engineered corn seeds will be take-to-the-bank winners. Our three top performers in this sector will make money hand over fist.
However, the biggest moneymakers of all will be the producers of improved seeds for growing crops. The reasons are quite obvious. To understand why demand for corn and corn products is rising exponentially and our #1 pick could double your money in 12 months, you need only consider these two simple factors:
First, we eat fairly well here in the U.S., both China and India face food shortages brought on by population growth, water shortages and smaller harvests.
As the old saying goes, "If you give man a fish, you feed him for a day. If you teach him how to fish, you feed him for life." This is why I believe that the biggest opportunity lies in genetically modified seeds. The reason is simple: Genetically modified seeds not only increase crop yields, but also increase nutritional value while reducing susceptibility to crop-killing pests.
Because growing your own food increases your country's food security, demand is exploding. Today, more than 8 million farmers in 17 million countries grow genetically engineered crops on 200 million acres-a 20% increase from a year ago.
However, this number is expected to double by 2010, driven by China's expected approval to grow genetically engineered crops. That's just one reason why corn prices are exploding.
As you can see the weak dollar isn't all bad especially for the smart investor. There are plenty of Investor Newsletters out there that will give you more detailed information on which companies and which markets will explode due to these current factors.
Currencies are still a good option here because of the historical data showing that the dollar will bounce back at some time and that it will be a major move. If you chart the dollar versus the Euro you will see that soon we will be in the prime position to invest a little amount of money and ride it up to Thousands of Dollars.
Bob Perry is a freelance writer with experience in financial markets and investments. Lately he has become involved in affiliate marketing. Check his blog for more informative articles
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